The ongoing Iran war is threatening food security in Africa, particularly for its most vulnerable populations. Rising fertiliser prices and disrupted supply chains could lead to dramatic consequences for millions living in sub-Saharan Africa.
Since the onset of the conflict, the price of urea—a key fertiliser ingredient—has skyrocketed by 60% to 70%. This spike is largely due to the war’s impact on ammonia supplies, which are crucial for fertiliser production. According to S&P Global, food supply chains are facing significant challenges from fuel and fertiliser restrictions.
Africa, while rich in agricultural potential, remains heavily dependent on imported food. In fact, around 35% of the world’s supply of urea comes from Gulf states, which means that any disruption there has a direct knock-on effect on African nations like Ethiopia and Kenya. These countries are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on Middle Eastern nitrogenous fertilisers.
Key facts:
- The price of urea has increased by 60% to 70% since the war began.
- Africa is a major food importer despite its agricultural capabilities.
- The EU has announced grant aid of up to €50,000 for farmers affected by the conflict.
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International—the world’s largest fertiliser company—has raised alarms about a potential global auction for fertiliser that could make it unaffordable for those most in need. He stated, “The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now.” This sentiment echoes across various sectors as farmers brace for an uncertain future.
The situation is dire. Holsether also noted that “we are losing production every day. It will take weeks or months to restart.” Farmers who once viewed agriculture as a viable livelihood are now reconsidering their options. Some express a preference for day labour over farming due to financial losses—”I’d rather work as a day labourer and earn 100 to 200 baht a day just to get by,” one farmer remarked.
This crisis underscores the fragility of food systems in Africa—systems already strained by climate change and economic instability. As officials scramble to address these challenges, uncertainty looms over how long these disruptions will last and what measures will be taken next.