The Iran war is threatening food security in Africa, with dire implications for the continent’s most vulnerable populations. As the conflict escalates, experts warn that food shortages could become widespread, particularly affecting nations like Ethiopia and Kenya.
The immediate impact is stark. Since the war began, the price of urea—a crucial fertiliser ingredient—has skyrocketed by 60% to 70%. This surge in costs is primarily driven by disruptions in ammonia supplies, which are critical for fertiliser production. As a result, many farmers face an uphill battle in maintaining their crops and livelihoods.
Africa is paradoxically well-positioned to grow its own food yet remains a major food importer. The continent relies heavily on agricultural imports, which raises questions about its long-term food security strategy. With 35% of the world’s supply of urea coming from Gulf states, the ongoing conflict poses significant risks to these supply chains.
Key facts:
- The price of urea has increased by 60% to 70% since the onset of the Iran war.
- Africa imports a substantial amount of its food despite having potential for local production.
- The EU has announced grant aid of up to €50,000 for farmers impacted by the conflict.
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International—the world’s largest fertiliser company—has raised alarms about a potential global auction on fertiliser. He stated, “The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now – that there is a risk of a global auction on fertiliser that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable.” This sentiment underscores the urgency of addressing these challenges before they escalate further.
The situation may worsen as agricultural production declines daily. Holsether warned that restarting production could take weeks or even months. Many farmers are already feeling disillusioned; one lamented that farming often leads to financial losses and expressed a preference for day labour over farming due to inadequate returns.
This crisis highlights a broader issue: how do nations balance reliance on imports with local agricultural capabilities? As countries like Ethiopia and Kenya grapple with these challenges, their dependence on Middle Eastern nitrogenous fertilisers becomes increasingly precarious. The stakes have never been higher for those who depend on stable food supplies.